Nat-Fuel Costs Retreat as Weekly EIA Inventories Climb Above Expectations

November Nymex pure gasoline (NGX25) on Thursday closed down by -0.106 (-3.07%).

Nov nat-gas costs retreated on Thursday from a greater-than-expected construct in weekly nat-gas storage.  The EIA reported on Thursday that nat-gas inventories rose +87 bcf within the week ended October 17, above expectations of +83 bcf and the five-year common of +77 bcf.

A blended climate forecast additionally undercut nat-gas costs on Thursday after forecaster Atmospheric G2 stated forecasts shifted cooler within the southern and japanese US for October 28-November 1 however hotter elsewhere.  Additionally, forecasts turned cooler over the japanese half of the US and hotter over the western area for November 2-6.

US (lower-48) dry gasoline manufacturing on Thursday was 107.9  bcf/day (+5.4% y/y), in line with BNEF.  Decrease-48 state gasoline demand on Thursday was 75.5 bcf/day (+3.4% y/y), in line with BNEF.  Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday have been 16.6 bcf/day (+1.0% w/w), in line with BNEF.  In line with a report from the EIA on Monday, US nat-gas pipeline exports to Mexico rose to a document 7.5 bcf/day in Might.

Larger US nat-gas manufacturing is a bearish issue for costs.  On October 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day from September’s estimate of 106.60 bcf/day.  US nat-gas manufacturing is at present close to a document excessive, with lively US nat-gas rigs not too long ago posting a 2-year excessive.

As a supportive issue for gasoline costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended October 18 rose +4.0% y/y to 73,756 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending October 18 rose +2.89% y/y to 4,280,821 GWh.

Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended October 17 rose +87 bcf, above the market consensus of +83 bcf and the 5-year weekly common of +77 bcf.  As of October 17, nat-gas inventories have been up +0.6% y/y and have been +4.5% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling satisfactory nat-gas provides.  As of October 21, gasoline storage in Europe was 83% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 92% full for this time of 12 months.

Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of lively US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending October 17 rose by +1 to 121 rigs, slightly below the 2-year excessive of 124 rigs posted on August 1.  Up to now 12 months, the variety of gasoline rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both straight or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com