Paytm This fall Outcomes Preview: One 97 Communications might swing to earnings regardless of as much as 13% doubtless drop in revenues
Nevertheless, Motilal Oswal Monetary Companies (MOFSL) tasks a web lack of Rs 112 crore for the January–March quarter, although it expects the loss to slim each year-on-year and sequentially.
Paytm’s Q4FY25 income is more likely to decline 3% to 13%, translating to a topline between Rs 1,975 crore and Rs 2,199 crore.
Among the many brokerages, JM Monetary has essentially the most conservative income estimate, whereas Sure Securities is essentially the most optimistic.
Right here’s what brokerages really useful:
JM Monetary
One 97 Communications is anticipated to submit a web revenue of Rs 4.5 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, in comparison with a lack of Rs 551 crore within the year-ago interval and a lack of Rs 208 crore in Q3FY25.
Paytm’s Q4FY25 income is estimated at Rs 1,975 crore, reflecting a 13% YoY decline however an 8% QoQ development.
EBITDA is more likely to stay adverse at Rs 65 crore, although that marks a 71% enchancment each YoY and QoQ. The EBITDA margin is projected to enhance by 660 bps YoY and 889 bps QoQ, although it could nonetheless stay adverse at 3.3%.
JM estimates the corporate’s contribution revenue at Rs 1,108 crore, a 14% YoY decline however a 15.6% QoQ improve, indicating enhancing price efficiencies and operational momentum.
“On a consolidated foundation, income (together with Rs 100 crore UPI incentive) is anticipated to develop round 8% QoQ. Contribution margin is anticipated to develop by 370 bps QoQ, pushed by a rising share of monetary companies — significantly from larger take-rates below the DLG mannequin in service provider loans,” JM mentioned in its observe.
The brokerage expects higher working leverage because of decrease worker prices to push Paytm into adjusted EBITDA optimistic territory, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.1%.
Sure Securities
Sure Securities additionally expects Paytm to report a optimistic PAT in Q4FY25. It estimates income at Rs 2,199 crore, marking a 3% YoY decline however a 20% sequential development.
EBITDA is projected at Rs 15.2 crore.
The brokerage clarified that the YoY income drop components within the UPI incentive.
On the fee aspect, Fee Processing Expenses (PPC) as a proportion of Funds Income is anticipated to be 51%, down from 56.9% in Q3, largely because of the incentive.
“We arrive at whole bills (excluding PPC and ESOP expense) rising 5% QoQ, in contrast with a 2% decline in Q3FY25, leading to an EBITDA margin (excl. different earnings and pre-ESOP price) of 10%, up 1200 bps QoQ,” the preview observe mentioned.
Motilal Oswal Monetary Companies (MOFSL)
Motilal Oswal expects Paytm to submit a web lack of Rs 112 crore, although the loss is more likely to slim on each YoY and QoQ bases.
Income is projected at Rs 2,098 crore, down 7.5% YoY and up 15% QoQ.
The brokerage expects working profitability to enhance, pushed by decrease depreciation prices. It additionally sees sequential development in disbursements and GMV.
The observe added that income development could be aided by the UPI incentive, and that EBITDA steering could be a key monitorable going ahead.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, strategies, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of Financial Instances)
