Christopher Wooden warns of AI fatigue. Why Jefferies is popping to India and China
In his e-newsletter ‘GREED & concern’, Wooden writes that the brand new quarter has opened “with a lot speak of ‘AI fatigue’ as buyers look out for a peaking out of momentum and rotation into cheaper ‘worth’ names which haven’t been a part of the AI commerce,” citing Tencent as one Asian instance. He argues that sharp pullbacks in Korea’s AI leaders are “each pure and wholesome” after “hyperbolic strikes,” with the Kospi now down 22% from its 19 June peak and single‑inventory leveraged ETFs on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics dropping round 30% from asset highs.
Wooden highlights simply how excessive the AI run‑up has been: for the reason that begin of 2023, a market‑cap‑weighted basket of Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics has surged about 760%, versus a 180% acquire for a basket of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. “Lengthy‑time period GREED & concern would nonetheless quite personal the DRAM makers,” he says, including that “the demand for compute can continue to grow whilst the price of tokens collapse,” whereas he has “no thought which of the hyperscalers, if any, are going to be efficiently monetising their AI capex.”
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Trillion‑Greenback AI Capex, Skinny Monetisation
Jefferies underscores the macro scale of the AI construct‑out, estimating that the 4 main US hyperscalers will spend about US$700bn on capex this yr and greater than US$800bn subsequent yr, rising to over US$1tn in 2027 when Oracle, Anthropic, OpenAI and neo‑cloud gamers are included. This US$1tn determine equates to roughly 3% of US GDP, round 22% of US non‑residential fastened funding and an estimated 33% of whole pre‑tax earnings of all US non‑monetary corporations, underlining Wooden’s description of AI as “the mom of all cycles.”
But, he warns that the financing and accounting of this capex arms race are more and more stretched. The 4 hyperscalers have lifted projected capex to an enormous 92% of projected working money move, collectively issued US$169bn of bonds to this point this yr and collected US$662bn of future information‑centre lease commitments that stay off stability sheet, with whole undiscounted lease obligations nearing US$969bn.
Why Jefferies Is Rotating Towards India
Towards that backdrop, Jefferies is intentionally tilting its Asia Pacific ex‑Japan asset‑allocation towards markets much less dominated by AI momentum. In its newest GREED & concern observe, the agency assigns India a 12% advisable weight versus a ten.9% benchmark weight within the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex‑Japan index, giving India a optimistic mismatch of 1.1 share factors.
Regardless of a correction in reminiscence shares, GREED & concern stays Underweight Taiwan and solely Impartial on Korea, having reduce Korea’s impartial weighting from 24.6% to twenty.8% since late June, whereas sustaining publicity to smaller ASEAN markets largely “simply to keep up a presence there.” Wooden’s message is that markets like India, which host “cheaper ‘worth’ names which haven’t been a part of the AI commerce,” are nicely positioned to learn from any sustained rotation out of momentum AI names.
China: Valuation Play within the Rotation
China is the opposite key leg of Jefferies’ rotation. Wooden states that “it’s too late to promote MSCI China or certainly Hong Kong,” arguing that that is “exactly the world that ought to profit from any imply reversion out of momentum AI names,” a view he credit to Jefferies’ international head of quantitative technique, Desh Peramunetilleke.
MSCI China has de‑rated sharply to simply 10.6 occasions 12‑month ahead earnings, down from 13.9 occasions in October 2025 and 18.5 occasions in early 2021, even because the CSI 300 is up 11.9% within the first half of 2026 whereas MSCI China is down 14.9% in US greenback phrases. Wooden concedes that falling family loans and rising retail non‑performing loans are “one space of concern,” however maintains a base case that consumption is stabilising at a decrease share of GDP and that China will keep away from a self‑feeding adverse fairness cycle in residential property, leaving shopper and home‑demand shares already pricing in a lot of the macro pressure.
Larger Than Dot‑Com – And Now Rotating
To border the AI cycle traditionally, Jefferies notes that US funding in data‑processing gear and software program has climbed to 4.88% of nominal GDP in 1Q26, surpassing the 4.46% peak reached on the top of the dot‑com increase in 4Q00. Wooden stresses that the earnings from this capex increase are “entrance‑finish loaded” in favour of picks‑and‑shovels suppliers, whereas hyperscalers spent US$130bn on capex in 1Q26 however booked solely US$41. 6bn of depreciation and amortisation, making earnings look technically overstated.
With the Hyperscalers‑4 index underperforming the S&P 500 by 11% since early Might and AI leaders nicely off their highs, Wooden argues that buyers can not ignore the dangers round monetisation, financing and political pushback to information‑centre initiatives. “As long as the AI capex arms race continues, the beneficiaries will stay the picks and shovels commerce (i.e. the individuals being paid for the capex, not the businesses spending the cash),” he concludes, as Jefferies repositions towards India, China and different Asian markets poised to realize from an extended‑overdue rotation out of AI momentum.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t signify the views of The Financial Instances)
