Vodafone Concept Q2 Preview: Losses to slender on higher ARPU and value management
Kotak Equities expects Vodafone Concept’s income to enhance 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, pushed by a marginal rise in common income per consumer (ARPU), at the same time as subscriber attrition continues. The brokerage fashions a 1 million decline in end-of-period subscribers to round 196.7 million, whereas ARPU may improve to Rs 169 per thirty days, aided by tariff changes and one additional day within the quarter.
Nuvama additionally sees income development of simply 0.5% QoQ, supported by modest ARPU enlargement however weighed down by a shrinking consumer base. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to remain flat sequentially. “Key monitorables embody progress on 5G rollout, fund-raise plans, and updates on the AGR plea,” the brokerage famous.
Working efficiency probably regular
UBS expects a weak Q2FY26 for the telco within the absence of value hikes and continued subscriber losses. It estimates income and EBITDA development of two.1% and 4.2% YoY, respectively, with sequential development of 1.2% and a couple of.8%. UBS flagged draw back dangers to FY26 capex, saying funding constraints may delay enlargement. “We are going to monitor administration commentary on fundraising and potential aid measures round AGR or spectrum dues,” it stated.
JM Monetary initiatives a 0.8% QoQ income rise to Rs 11,100 crore and a marginal 1.1% QoQ improve in reported EBITDA to Rs 4,660 crore. Pre-IND AS EBITDA, which displays the corporate’s money earnings, is prone to rise 0.9% QoQ to Rs 2,200 crore. It expects web subscriber loss to slender to 0.5 million throughout the quarter, just like the earlier quarter, with round 1 million additions in cell broadband (MBB) customers aided by ongoing community enlargement.
Motilal Oswal additionally sees subdued momentum, projecting 1% QoQ income development, with the good thing about one additional day offset by continued subscriber base decline. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to contract by 30 bps QoQ to 41.5%. It estimates ARPU to rise modestly to Rs 166, whereas whole subscribers are anticipated to fall by about 1 million.
Losses might slender, funding stays a key overhangAnalysts anticipate Vodafone Concept’s web losses to slender modestly this quarter, as operational effectivity improves and decrease community prices offset finance bills. The corporate’s current steps to manage spending, consolidate towers, and scale back community overlaps have began reflecting in a steadier value base.
Kotak expects a 1% sequential EBITDA rise, highlighting that whereas working leverage stays restricted, the corporate’s expense controls are supporting money movement stability. JM Monetary and UBS additionally see a gradual enchancment in profitability metrics, helped by a more healthy mixture of high-ARPU customers and secure opex developments.
UBS famous that the delay in fund infusion may pressure Vodafone Concept to scale down its capital spending plan for FY26, additional hurting its capability to compete with bigger friends Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.
Subscriber decline and ARPU developments
Most brokerages anticipate Vodafone Concept’s ARPU to rise 1-2% QoQ, supported by premiumisation and gradual migration to higher-value plans. Nevertheless, the continued subscriber losses proceed to restrict the good thing about ARPU development.
Vi’s ARPU is anticipated to face between Rs 166-169, in comparison with Rs 165 in Q1FY26. The subscriber base may drop by 0.5-1 million customers, extending the downward pattern as community gaps and delayed 5G rollouts drive churn.
