Ilya Sorokin constructing MVP case with loads of Islanders work to do

WINNIPEG, Manitoba — A goaltender profitable the Hart Trophy is an exceptionally uncommon factor, with Connor Hellebuyck breaking a 10-year drought on the place final season.

So with Hellebuyck within the crease for the Jets on Tuesday in opposition to the Islanders and Ilya Sorokin, it appeared pretty much as good a time as any to ponder whether or not Sorokin — the present favourite for the Vezina Trophy — has any likelihood of creating it a double and likewise profitable the league MVP.

To his teammates and head coach, the reply is that he actually ought to.

“He’s been one in every of our greatest gamers this yr,” Emil Heineman mentioned. “He’s received plenty of video games for us. So I believe he must be up there for certain.”

“To me he’s one of the best goalie within the NHL,” Jean-Gabriel Pageau advised The Put up.

“Completely,” coach Patrick Roy mentioned. “Completely.”

OK, however let’s be actual for a second. The Islanders aren’t precisely goal about whether or not their teammates ought to win awards, understandably so. Is there an actual case that Sorokin must be within the dialog for the Hart?

Properly that relies upon the way you have a look at it. If you happen to strictly interpret the factors of “participant most precious to his crew,” then sure, Sorokin is unquestionably essentially the most helpful Islander. Then once more, if voters interpreted that strictly, each poll would have the 5 greatest goaltenders on it, and that doesn’t are inclined to occur.

A yr in the past, when Hellebuyck beat out Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, the Winnipeg netminder led the league in targets in opposition to common (2.00), wins (47) and Evolving Hockey’s measure of targets saved above anticipated (49.48) whereas being second in save proportion (.925). Draisaitl completed with 106 factors, which ranked third, whereas main the league with 52 targets in 71 video games performed.

Sorokin, going into Tuesday night time, wasn’t main the league in any of the identical classes. His 4 shutouts had been tied for essentially the most within the league, however his case for the Hart would relaxation extra on analytics and on a literal interpretation of how helpful he’s for the Islanders.

Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights for SportLogiq, the platform utilized by most NHL groups (together with the Islanders) tweeted Sunday that by his firm’s metrics, Sorokin leads the NHL in targets saved above anticipated and in goaltender steals — which is to say, video games during which the goaltender “steals” a victory for his crew — with 9. He’s additionally third in SportLogiq’s high quality begin metric. Evolving Hockey, which measures targets saved above anticipated otherwise from SportLogiq, has him behind Washington’s Logan Thompson within the class.

That’s all nice, however most writers who vote for the Hart Trophy don’t have entry to SportLogiq, so making a case totally on their stats goes to be a troublesome promote for that motive alone, unfair as it might be.

There’s additionally the matter of Nathan MacKinnon, the present frontrunner, who already has 81 factors in simply 45 video games on an Avalanche crew that’s misplaced simply 4 video games in regulation. MacKinnon, the Hart winner in 2023-24, additionally leads the league in scoring with 36 targets and plus/minus at an absurd plus-49.

A very good comparability for Sorokin’s case proper now would really be his personal 2022-23 season, when he single-handedly willed the Islanders into the playoffs and completed with 51.36 targets saved above anticipated, the second-highest complete ever tracked by Evolving Hockey. That yr, Sorokin completed second in Vezina Trophy voting — a swing and a miss by voters — and ninth for the Hart.

The Islanders are a significantly better crew this yr, which ought to assist Sorokin’s visibility come awards season, however at the least proper now, it appears unlikely he’ll break into the dialog for league MVP. After all, there’s loads of time for that to vary, and the Islanders would understandably observe that they wouldn’t be the place they’re with out him.

“He has an impression each night time he’s within the internet for us,” Pageau mentioned. “He offers us an opportunity to win, or he wins the sport himself generally. He’s our greatest participant many of the nights. I might for certain think about him within the Hart race.”