If Trump cuts Medicaid, this California Republican’s Home seat can be imperiled

Rep. David Valadao confronted a no-win resolution final month: Fall into line behind President Trump and vote for a finances decision that may virtually actually reduce into Medicaid funding, risking his constituents’ wrath; or vote towards it, catapulting his get together into chaos and setting himself up for a major opponent presumably backed by Trump.

Valadao, a Republican dairy farmer from Hanford, selected his get together.

In his speech on the Home flooring forward of the vote, Valadao acknowledged that he’d “heard from numerous constituents” advocating for continued help of this system.

“I can’t help a remaining reconciliation invoice that dangers leaving them behind,” he mentioned, including, “I ask that management stays dedicated to working with my colleagues and I to supply a remaining product that strengthens essential applications like Medicaid and SNAP and ensures that our constituents should not left behind.”

Valadao’s vote got here early in a finances course of that Republicans say will ultimately present $2 trillion in financial savings. Assuming all Democrats vote towards a remaining spending plan — as they did with the finances decision — Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can afford to lose just one Republican vote.

Again residence, Valadao faces the troublesome activity of reassuring his constituents within the twenty second Congressional District that he’ll stave off cuts to Medi-Cal, as Medicaid is thought in California. Republican Reps. Younger Kim and Ken Calvert, who signify different swing districts in California, additionally voted for the finances decision. However Valadao faces a steeper battle: Greater than half 1,000,000 residents in his Central Valley district, or roughly two-thirds of the inhabitants, are coated by this system — probably the most of any district in California, in response to the UC Berkeley Labor Heart.

Already, Democrats are getting ready to make use of his vote in an effort to unseat the longtime congressman.

Because the minority get together in each the Home and Senate, Democrats have struggled to resolve how to withstand Trump and the Republicans in Congress. The finances decision vote, which is nearly sure to chop into Medicaid, gave them one thing to work with: Home Majority Ahead, a progressive political motion committee, began working assault advertisements in 23 potential swing districts held by Republicans, together with Valadao’s.

David Valadao speaking with people at the Buttonwillow Fall Farm Festival

“David Valadao will remorse betraying Central Valley households by voting to intestine Medicaid with the intention to fund huge tax cuts for billionaires and massive companies,” Justin Chermol, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee, mentioned in an announcement.

Many Central Valley residents are sick. Kern County, one of many three counties that make up the district, had the best mortality fee for diabetes within the state, with 1,241 deaths between 2020 and 2022.

In neighboring Kings County, coronary heart illness and most cancers are the main reason for dying, and greater than 1 / 4 of residents rated their well being as “truthful” or “poor,” in response to the county public well being division. And in Tulare County, well being officers are warning that finances cuts may pressure the closure of rural hospitals, which already function on tight margins as a result of a excessive variety of Medi-Cal sufferers.

Kelly Kulzer-Reyes, a Bakersfield resident and co-founder of the Kern Down Syndrome Community, has a working relationship with Valadao, who has supported their advocacy previously, she mentioned. Within the district, greater than 8,500 folks depend on the Regional Service Heart, which goals to assist people with developmental disabilities.

“I do know he desires to help us, I do know he is an effective particular person,” she mentioned. “However the vote to maneuver ahead with the finances decision was devastating to me. I’ve by no means been as scared as I’m proper now.”

Recipients similar to her 12-year-old daughter, Amelia, rely upon the state and federal healthcare program to fund companies that enable them to study expertise and navigate the world, Kulzer-Reyes mentioned. Amelia, who has Down syndrome, receives entry to a program that helps members discover ways to socialize with others. Different households get healthcare — similar to annual physician’s appointments and dental checkups — they in any other case wouldn’t have.

“These sorts of companies could make or break a household,” Kulzer-Reyes mentioned. “They’re life-changing and life-destroying if you happen to don’t have entry.”

She believes Valadao when he says he doesn’t help cuts to this system. However she needs he did extra to face as much as his get together.

“I simply want he would converse up. It have to be exhausting, however it’s the job he ran for,” she mentioned. “It is a career-breaking or making scenario for him proper now.”

Republican leaders advocating for the finances decision emphasised that it didn’t explicitly point out Medicaid. Trump, who lobbied sure congressional Republicans to help the finances decision, has additionally mentioned that he wouldn’t help reducing Medicaid.

However the Congressional Finances Workplace, which supplies nonpartisan finances evaluation, reported that it might be unattainable for the Vitality and Commerce Committee — which is tasked with reducing $880 billion — to seek out sufficient financial savings with out touching Medicaid, Medicare or the Youngsters’s Well being Insurance coverage Program.

Children with Down syndrome taking a class

“Medicaid is the one place — it’s just like the financial institution, it’s the place the cash is,” mentioned Mark Peterson, professor of public coverage, political science, well being coverage and administration at UCLA. He added of Valadao: “He’s going to have an issue.”

The finances blueprint is winding its method by means of varied committees. In the meantime, the Senate will take up laws, which the Home handed Tuesday, to keep away from a shutdown and fund the federal government by means of Sept. 30. Valadao voted for the short-term measure, saying in an announcement afterward that it “ensures essential authorities companies stay operational [and] protects Social Safety, Medicare, and Medicaid recipients from pointless disruptions.”

Virtually sure to face ugly backlash, Valadao has averted holding city halls in his district. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) tauntingly introduced he would maintain conferences for Valadao as a substitute — in addition to in Kim’s and Calvert’s districts.

The Combat for Our Well being advocacy coalition organized a city corridor in Bakersfield final month forward of the finances vote and invited Valadao, who mentioned he couldn’t attend. The occasion, in response to native reviews, featured many annoyed residents who rely upon the healthcare program.

Joyce Corridor, 80, carried an indication that learn “healthcare for the folks and never for the billionaires” exterior Valadao’s Bakersfield workplace on a latest afternoon. The retiree mentioned she depends on Medi-Cal to cowl the prices of her co-pays and prescription remedy. With out it, she mentioned, she’d possible should rely upon her household to cowl the prices.

If Valadao votes to chop into this system, Corridor mentioned, she hopes that he loses his seat in Congress through the subsequent election cycle.

A reasonably average Republican in a Democrat-majority district, Valadao is cautious about talking out. He avoids the media, and rarely provides interviews. When approached by a reporter for this text, Valadao referred inquiries to his spokesperson, who mentioned he was not out there.

Voting on pivotal healthcare laws is acquainted territory for Valadao. In 2017, he voted alongside get together strains and joined his Republican colleagues to repeal and exchange the Inexpensive Care Act. That subsequent election cycle, he misplaced to Democratic challenger TJ Cox.

Valadao gained his seat again in 2020 and managed to hold on by means of 2022, even after he voted in Trump’s second impeachment trial to oust the president for inciting an rebel on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He gained reelection in 2024 by greater than 11,000 votes.

If Valadao helps a remaining finances that cuts Medicaid, it may imply a repeat of his 2018 loss, mentioned Matt Herdman, the California director for Defend Our Care, a nonprofit that advocates for elevated entry to inexpensive healthcare. He mentioned folks within the district have turn out to be energized to defend towards Medicaid cuts.

“If David Valadao votes to chop Medicaid, it is going to be the only largest situation to trigger his defeat in 2026,” Herdman predicted.

Cathy Abernathy, a GOP strategist, disputed that evaluation and mentioned she doesn’t assume Valadao needs to be involved. Voters within the district belief him to ship and never reduce Medicaid advantages until it’s wasteful and going to the “grasping,” she mentioned.

“Reducing the dimensions of this authorities in order that it’s not so pricey on the working folks however nonetheless present wanted companies continues to be one thing that they belief Valadao on,” Abernathy mentioned.

Some, similar to German Cervantes, consider Valadao will in the end rise up for his constituents who rely upon Medicaid. Cervantes, who has autism and advocates for the autism group, in 2014 interned for Valadao’s workplace, the place he obtained to fulfill the congressman and realized his values.

Cervantes, 30, depends on Medi-Cal to cowl the prices of a program that has opened up doorways for him to journey and take part in applications similar to Pleased Trails, a horse remedy program, and volunteer journeys. It additionally covers his medical bills, together with annual bodily exams, dental checkups and new glasses.

His message to Valadao? Stand by his constituents and Medicaid.

“Hey David, when you find yourself in Washington, D.C., with Congress, the one factor I encourage you is to please inform Congress to not reduce Medicare and Medi-Cal,” Cervantes mentioned, “as a result of if you happen to do, not solely will folks lose their jobs and their healthcare appointments, many individuals will lose their lives.”

Gomez reported from Los Angeles and Pinho from Washington.