Can Quantum Computing Shares IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum Develop into the Subsequent Nvidia? Historical past Presents Some Large Clues.
Buyers are at all times looking out for the following Nvidia, whose shares have rallied greater than 21,800% over the trailing decade.
Quantum computing is prone to take years to mature and evolve as a expertise.
Historical past exhibits that valuation and aggressive pressures are anticipated to weigh on IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc.
Roughly 30 years in the past, the mainstream proliferation of the web started altering the expansion trajectory for companies across the globe. This expertise opened new gross sales and advertising channels for corporations, in addition to broke down the knowledge barrier that had existed for greater than a century on Wall Avenue between skilled and retail traders.
For many years, traders have been ready for the following hyped expertise that will lead company America ahead. The rise of synthetic intelligence (AI) has, to date, been the reply. Nvidia has seen its valuation skyrocket as its superior graphics processing models energy enterprise AI-accelerated knowledge facilities. Over the trailing decade (as of Dec. 11, 2025), shares of Nvidia have risen by greater than 21,800%!
Positive factors of this magnitude are a rarity on Wall Avenue. Buyers are at all times looking out for companies that share comparable traits to industry-leading corporations, with the hope of shopping for the following Nvidia.
Picture supply: Getty Photographs.
In 2025, quantum computing shares have flashed their potential. At one level this yr, pure-play shares IonQ(NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing(NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum(NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc.(NASDAQ: QUBT)had rallied as a lot as 5,400% on a trailing 12-month foundation. Buyers have been enamored by the prospects of quantum computing and its potential to unravel complicated issues and speed up the training means of AI algorithms.
However are quantum computing shares, akin to IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc., actually able to changing into the following Nvidia? Historical past presents some very massive (and sure disappointing) clues.
During the last three a long time, a few of Wall Avenue’s game-changing applied sciences and hyped developments have gone on to rework the world. The web is an ideal instance.
However the one trait each next-big-thing development has shared is an early innings bubble-bursting occasion.
These bubbles do not type accidentally. They are a direct results of traders overestimating the early stage adoption fee, utility, and/or optimization of a hyped innovation. Ultimately, these expectations aren’t met, which ends up in the music stopping. Although it is unimaginable to pinpoint when bubbles will burst, historic precedent (e.g., the web, genome decoding, nanotechnology, blockchain expertise, and the metaverse) is kind of clear that that is the norm with game-changing applied sciences.
Though we have noticed some early commercialization of quantum computer systems, with Amazon and Microsoft each permitting their quantum-cloud service subscribers entry to IonQ’s and Rigetti’s quantum computer systems, the {industry} continues to be a few years away from broad-based commercialization. It will be even longer earlier than quantum computer systems can provide benefits over classical computer systems for sensible problem-solving.
Historical past additionally exhibits that early stage corporations typically increase capital in methods which can be less-than-favorable to present shareholders.
For instance, in October, IonQ offered 16.5 million shares at $93 per share to lift $2 billion. The corporate’s fairness providing additionally got here with an assortment of warrants that may be exercised at particular value factors sooner or later.
Diluting present shareholders to lift capital is frequent apply for unproven companies which have restricted entry to primary monetary companies, akin to conventional loans and/or strains of credit score. Whereas I am not solely calling out IonQ, it suits the mildew of what early stage companies sometimes do to fund their analysis and improvement, in addition to ramp up their gross sales.
Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. are prone to observe in IonQ’s footsteps within the years to return, which might weigh on the share value of those pure-play shares.
Picture supply: Getty Photographs.
Historic precedent comes into play when inspecting the valuations of quantum computing shares, as effectively.
Though worth is within the eye of the beholder on Wall Avenue (what one investor finds costly is perhaps considered as a cut price by one other), the trailing 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio can reduce via this subjectivity and supply an goal outlook for corporations on the vanguard of next-big-thing developments.
Earlier than the dot-com bubble popped in March 2000, lots of the corporations heralding the rise of the web peaked at P/S ratios within the vary of 30 to 40, with some wiggle room in every path. Whereas it is a considerably arbitrary line within the sand, P/S ratios above 30 have not proved sustainable over an prolonged interval for any industry-leading firm because the mid-Nineties.
As of the closing bell on Dec. 11, trailing 12-month P/S ratios for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. clocked in at 163, 1,029, 337, and three,346, respectively. Even when traders used P/S ratios based mostly on projected gross sales in 2028 for these 4 pure-play shares, they’d all be effectively above this historic threshold used to establish inventory market bubbles.
Final however definitely not least, historical past has proven that early market leaders of next-big-thing developments aren’t at all times long-term winners.
There’s little query that IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. are having fun with their first-mover benefit. It is the explanation Wall Avenue has rewarded these pure-play shares with aggressive valuations, as evidenced by their P/S ratios. However the barrier to entry for quantum computing could also be far lower than you notice.
In December 2024, Alphabet debuted its Willow quantum processing unit (QPU), which efficiently supported a quantum algorithm on its {hardware} in a latest check. In the meantime, Microsoft launched its Majorana 1 QPU in February.
Share-based dilution and ongoing working losses apart, there isn’t any greater danger for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. than cash-rich members of the “Magnificent Seven” deciding they need to dominate a expertise that the analysts at Boston Consulting Group imagine can create as much as $850 billion in international financial worth by 2040.
In contrast to quantum computing pure-play shares, members of the Magnificent Seven have extremely worthwhile foundations. They will handily outspend quantum computing shares and shortly erode their first-mover benefit.
Suffice it to say, I do not anticipate IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, or Quantum Computing Inc. changing into the following Nvidia.
Before you purchase inventory in IonQ, contemplate this:
The Motley Idiot Inventory Advisor analyst staff simply recognized what they imagine are the 10 greatest shares for traders to purchase now… and IonQ wasn’t one in every of them. The ten shares that made the reduce may produce monster returns within the coming years.
Think about when Netflix made this record on December 17, 2004… when you invested $1,000 on the time of our suggestion, you’d have $513,353!* Or when Nvidia made this record on April 15, 2005… when you invested $1,000 on the time of our suggestion, you’d have $1,072,908!*
Now, it’s price noting Inventory Advisor’s whole common return is 965% — a market-crushing outperformance in comparison with 193% for the S&P 500. Do not miss the most recent prime 10 record, accessible with Inventory Advisor, and be a part of an investing neighborhood constructed by particular person traders for particular person traders.
Sean Williams has positions in Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Idiot has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, IonQ, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Idiot recommends the next choices: lengthy January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and quick January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Idiot has a disclosure coverage.
