LifeMD, Inc. (LFMD): A Bull Case Concept
We got here throughout a bullish thesis on LifeMD, Inc. (LFMD) on Substack by William Fleming-Daniels. On this article, we are going to summarize the bulls’ thesis on LFMD. LifeMD, Inc. (LFMD)’s share was buying and selling at $5.43 as of April 17th. LFMD’s ahead P/E was 24.69 in accordance with Yahoo Finance.
A physician sporting a face masks using trendy telemedicine gear as a part of a telehealth software program.
LifeMD (LFMD) is a founder-led, vertically built-in virtual-care supplier providing a subscription-based bundle of providers spanning main care, specialist telehealth, weight administration, and résumé-building SaaS. Its construction—proudly owning the doctor community, pharmacy, and patient-support infrastructure—permits it to seize practically the whole margin chain, with 90% of income recurring via subscriptions and the remainder from e-commerce and lab charges. The management stays carefully aligned with shareholders, with co-founder and CEO Justin Schreiber nonetheless on the helm and insider possession within the mid-teens. In 2024, LifeMD reported $212.5 million in income, up 39%, with adjusted EBITDA of $14.4 million (a 6.8% margin) and optimistic free money stream of ~$16 million for the primary time. Whereas GAAP EPS was -$0.53, adjusted EPS was $0.35. The corporate holds $35 million in money in opposition to $18.3 million in debt, giving it a modest web money place.
Regardless of robust fundamentals, shares have pulled again sharply, closing at $5.43 on April 18, 2025, implying a ~$242 million market cap and $225 million EV. This places the inventory at simply 15x EV/EBITDA—lower than half the a number of of Teladoc and effectively beneath Hims & Hers, regardless that LifeMD operates with related gross margins. Although analysts count on a minor GAAP loss in 2025, consensus 2026 EPS of $0.19 implies a ahead P/E of 29x and a PEG ratio beneath 0.2, reflecting the corporate’s steep anticipated earnings progress via working leverage. Development will likely be pushed by deeper penetration of GLP-1 weight-loss choices, behavioral and ladies’s well being enlargement, higher commercial-insurance protection to cut back churn, and potential enterprise licensing of its tech stack. Nonetheless, Medicare’s April 2025 determination to disclaim reimbursement for obesity-only GLP-1s tempers near-term upside, and aggressive and regulatory dangers stay from gamers like Teladoc, Amazon Clinic, and retail pharmacy giants. Nonetheless, LifeMD’s asset-light mannequin and web money buffer restrict draw back threat.
Valuation hinges on execution. Within the bear case, with muted GLP-1 adoption and income stalling close to $300 million, EPS would attain solely $0.05 by 2026, supporting a $6 share value. The bottom case sees income rising to $330 million, low-teen EBITDA margins, and $0.25 EPS, translating to a $12 honest worth. A bullish final result, now much less seemingly attributable to Medicare’s ruling, initiatives $380 million in income and $0.40 EPS, supporting a $22 goal. Weighting all three situations leads to an intrinsic worth of ~$13, greater than double the present value, presenting a compelling however execution-dependent alternative.
