What is that this ‘blue dot fever’ and why is the music trade troubled with it? – Nationwide
Because the Andes model of hantavirus continues to trigger concern amongst well being officers, the music trade is monitoring what’s being referred to as “blue dot fever.”
It’s nothing organic, nor will or not it’s the reason for the subsequent lockdown, however it’s of concern.
The situation will get its identify from on-line Ticketmaster seating charts for concert events at venues throughout North America. A blue dot signifies an unsold seat, and a fast survey of summer season concert events options a number of gigs that seem like a foul case of Smurf measles.
For the couple of years instantly following COVID, enterprise for the touring finish of the music trade surged as we made up for misplaced time throughout the shut-in interval in 2020-21. We referred to as it “funflation,” a wave of spending on issues that hadn’t been in a position to do.
Live performance revenues exploded, with 145 million individuals attending gigs in 2023, in comparison with 98 million in 2019, earlier than the pandemic. Final yr, the worldwide marketplace for live performance tickets was value US$25.4 billion as stadiums and arenas worldwide have been stuffed to capability. And as 2026 began, predictions have been that this is able to be one other banner yr.
As an alternative, now we have blue dot fever, which, in some circumstances, has confirmed not simply debilitating however deadly.
The Put up Malone-Jelly Roll tour has been scaled again because of poor ticket gross sales. Pussycat Dolls pulled all their North American dates on their reunion tour. Zayn Malik deserted all of the American enviornment dates he had booked. Meghan Trainor cancelled her total Get In Woman Tour. Child Rock’s Freedom 250 tour hasn’t met expectations.
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We could but hear of extra excursions collapsing. What’s happening? Weren’t we simply complaining that nobody may get a ticket to a present?
The financial system
When costs spike and inflation roars, the very first thing that will get reduce is discretionary spending. Fuel costs are manner up, client confidence is down, employment stays shaky, and geopolitics make it unimaginable to foretell the place issues are going from week to week. Corners should be reduce.
The price of live performance tickets
In keeping with Pollstar, the bible of the touring trade, the typical ticket worth to see a prime 100 touring artist in North America is US$134.23. That’s down 1.6 per cent from final yr, nevertheless it’s nonetheless costly. Globally, the typical worth is US$132.62. And if we have a look at stadium reveals, the typical worth is US$216.13, a whopping 18.3 per cent larger than final yr and 29 per cent larger than in 2023.
When the financial system was cooking, you possibly can make a case for spending that form of cash. At present, not a lot. And as soon as once more, Ticketmaster doesn’t set the worth of live performance tickets. The face worth of a ticket is set by the artist and the artist alone, basing it on how a lot the tour will price to stage and the way a lot cash they hope to make.
The one manner Ticketmaster makes any cash is by charging a price for its service. It will get nothing from the bottom worth of a ticket. Hate all of them you need, however Ticketmaster isn’t the issue right here.
Thinning revenue margins
Regardless of excessive ticket costs, margins that have been razor skinny to start with are getting thinner, due to the excessive price of touring. Power costs aren’t serving to. It prices so much to maintain a fleet of vans on the highway and diesel is in a worse spot than gasoline. When promoters, managers, and artists run revenue and loss projections, they’re discovering that dates should be trimmed and venues downsized. In excessive circumstances, it’s higher to simply name off the whole tour.
Take the case of Welsh band, Los Campesinos!, who supplied a latest accounting lesson in touring. They performed 11 reveals in America, promoting out all however one, averaging round US$21,000 per gig. Gross income was US$127,729.53, however after prices, commissions, taxes, visa charges, and unbudgeted bills have been deducted, the band returned house to Wales US$2,824.98 within the crimson. And it is a band that didn’t endure from blue dot fever.
Over-optimistic promoters, expertise consumers, and managers
Each tour is a big gamble. When 2026 excursions have been being deliberate, there was no US-Iran battle, gasoline costs have been secure, inflation wasn’t too unhealthy, and employment was regular. So why wouldn’t the upward traits of 2023-25 proceed? Swing for the fences!
However the second world affairs started to get wonky, the economics of those excursions modified. Jam up the Strait of Hormuz and what appeared like a certain factor throughout the planning phases in September-October-November of final yr instantly seems like a shedding proposition. Do you robust it out and hope for one of the best? Reduce? Cancel?
Stiff competitors
Loads of acts are as soon as once more on the highway this yr, however given the present state of economics, persons are choosing and selecting their spots. If, for instance, you’re a superfan, you’ll nonetheless discover a wait to scrape collectively $1,000 for a premium seat to see your favorite artists. That doesn’t go away a lot to spend on different reveals. Possibly the World Cup and its 104 matches throughout North America is hurting live performance ticket gross sales. I imply, have you ever seen what you need to shell out to get into a few of these video games? Then once more, there are studies of blue dots there, too, due to excessive costs, the steep price of transportation and accommodations in host cities, and uncertainty about abroad followers navigating ICE in America.
The large acts will do positive. They at all times do as a result of followers will at all times, at all times discover the cash. However beneath that higher crust, issues are undoubtedly wanting very blue. At the least thus far.
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