MicroStrategy Is Down 56.9% YTD, But Nonetheless Shopping for Bitcoin by the Billions

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A well-liked Reddit funding, Technique (NASDAQ:MSTR) has misplaced 56.9% of its worth, just lately buying and selling close to $138, but continues to purchase bitcoin at a tempo that has made it the biggest U.S. fairness issuer for 2 consecutive years. Reddit’s composite sentiment rating sits at 28 out of 100, firmly bearish, with debate concentrated in derivatives communities. The central query: can the corporate’s “BTC Yield” metric, which measures bitcoin per-diluted-share progress, outpace the dilution required to generate it?

Technique’s FY2025 BTC Yield got here in at 22.8%, that means every share represents extra bitcoin than a 12 months in the past, nevertheless, the corporate’s personal goal was 30%. Extra importantly, the agency raised $25.3 billion in capital throughout 2025 and now holds 713,502 BTC. The price: a 52.6% growth in share rely in 2025 alone, from roughly 192.5 million to just about 294 million shares, all whereas This fall produced a $12.44 billion web loss pushed by a $17.44 billion unrealized loss on digital belongings as bitcoin costs fell late within the 12 months.

All three Reddit sentiment knowledge factors captured over the previous 72 hours present bearish scores between 28 and 30, with 100% of certified mentions originating in r/choices fairly than long-term investing boards. Peak exercise hit Monday night at 9 PM ET, producing 60 feedback in a single hour. One r/choices thread titled “2026 leaps” had customers itemizing Technique places on their watchlist. One commenter wrote: “MSTR $120 Dec 26 PUT… these are on my watchlist.”

An infographic titled 'MicroStrategy (MSTR): The Bitcoin Treasury Paradox'. Section 1, 'WHAT THE INVESTMENT IS', describes MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin Treasury Company. It lists bullet points: 'Holds 713,502 BTC (as of Feb 1, 2026)', 'Market Cap: $44.3B', 'BTC Yield FY2025: 22.8% (Target: 30%)', and 'Current Price: ~$138 (down 54.5% YTD)'. Section 2, 'THE SOCIAL SENTIMENT SCORE', features a gauge with a needle pointing to 28 out of 100, labeled 'BEARISH' below it, with 'Source: Reddit Social Sentiment'. Section 3, 'WHAT IS DRIVING THAT SCORE TODAY', presents three rectangular boxes. The first, 'FINANCIAL LOSSES', has a downward arrow icon and states 'Q4 2025 Net Loss: $12.4B' and 'Driven by $17.44B Unrealized BTC Loss'. The second, 'MOUNTING DILUTION', has an icon of expanding squares and states '52.6% Share Count Expansion in 2025' and 'To Raise $25.3B Capital'. The third, 'REDDIT ACTIVITY', has Reddit and percentage icons and states '100% of Recent Bearish Mentions in r/options' and 'Focus on Puts and Derivatives'.
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This infographic particulars MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin holdings and monetary efficiency, alongside a bearish Reddit social sentiment rating pushed by current losses, share dilution, and derivatives exercise.

2026 leaps
by u/deleted in r/choices

 

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The bearish case rests on three issues:

  • Approved shares raised to 10.33 billion Class A shares, giving administration near-unlimited capability to dilute widespread holders.

  • Perpetual most popular obligations rank above widespread fairness, and the STRC most popular has grown to $3.4 billion, with its variable charge now at 11.25%, up from 9% earlier within the 12 months. Every improve raises the hurdle BTC Yield should clear to learn widespread shareholders.

  • Bitcoin is down 19.7% year-to-date to close $70,218, whereas Polymarket merchants assign solely a 30% likelihood of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, the brink Technique wants for its leveraged mannequin to generate significant positive aspects.

 

CEO Phong Le famous within the This fall submitting: “Our variable dividend charge mechanism for STRC, at the moment set at 11.25%, has helped preserve STRC worth stability close to the $100 said quantity regardless of a weaker bitcoin worth setting.” The USD reserve stands at $2.25 billion, masking roughly 2.5 years of most popular dividends and curiosity on debt, with out a bitcoin sale. Polymarket places the likelihood of a margin name in 2026 at simply 8%, and the percentages of any bitcoin being bought by year-end at 13%. Regardless of a bearish tone on Reddit, 13 of 14 masking analysts charge the technique a purchase, with a consensus goal close to $332.67.

Buyers will hold a detailed eye on Technique’s subsequent earnings report back to see whether or not BTC Yield can get well towards the 30% goal after lacking in 2025. With bitcoin down practically 20% year-to-date and the STRC dividend charge rising, the per-share BTC Yield calculation faces a steeper climb. Prediction markets give roughly a 95% likelihood that Technique will attain 800,000 BTC by year-end. Whether or not that accumulation interprets into per-share worth for widespread holders, fairly than flowing to most popular holders and new dilutive issuances, is the guess r/choices merchants are making.

Knowledge Sources:

  • Technique This fall 2025 earnings submitting (February 5, 2026): EPS, income, BTC holdings, capital raises, most popular dividend development, and CEO commentary.

  • Fuse API Reddit sentiment knowledge: Sentiment scores, exercise scores, and subreddit breakdown for the 72-hour window ending March 24, 2026.

  • Fuse API and Polymarket prediction markets: Chances for bitcoin worth targets, margin name danger, and bitcoin sale chance.

  • Alpha Vantage steadiness sheet knowledge: Share rely growth and fairness dilution metrics throughout 2023 to 2025.

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