The Bull vs. Bear Case for Silver and Gold

Gold (GCG26) costs in a single day climbed to a contemporary document excessive of $4,530.80 an oz, foundation February Comex futures. March Comex silver (SIH26) futures additionally hit a document excessive of $70.155 an oz in a single day. Gold marked its fiftieth record-breaking session this 12 months, as each metals are being pushed larger by safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, in addition to expectations of extra U.S. rate of interest cuts later subsequent 12 months. Thus far this 12 months, gold has soared 70%, on monitor for its strongest annual acquire since 1979. Silver is up by over 130% this 12 months.

Let’s break down, in bullet factors, the bullish and bearish components that can be impacting gold and silver costs within the new 12 months.

Technical elements stay firmly bullish total, as near-term and longer-term worth uptrends stay in place on the day by day, weekly, and month-to-month charts.
U.S. Federal Reserve financial coverage is prone to lean total dovish in 2026, particularly as President Donald Trump will hand-pick his Fed chair, who will come on board in late spring. Simpler Fed financial coverage would probably put strain on different main world central banks to additionally hold their financial insurance policies simpler. That might imply higher world demand for gold and silver, and presumably a weaker U.S. greenback.

World central banks are nonetheless stocking up on gold, with China main the best way. Extra of the identical is probably going in 2026.
Main nations proceed hoarding uncommon earths. The synthetic intelligence, electrical automobiles, and growing solar energy across the globe imply extra demand for minerals and metals, like silver. Main nations are stocking up on “uncommon earths” for their very own wants now, and desires sooner or later.
Geopolitics. The present U.S.-Venezuelan tensions are the most recent upset to the final market that’s driving higher safe-haven demand for gold and silver. That state of affairs will de-escalate in some unspecified time in the future however will very probably be adopted shortly thereafter by some new political stress someplace on the earth. After which one thing after that. Such is the best way the world works, as historical past exhibits.

The gold and silver markets are in very mature runs — probably within the eighth or ninth inning, in baseball phrases. Uncooked commodity markets, together with metals, are extremely cyclical. Historical past proves they undergo durations of increase and bust, solely to begin the cycle over once more. There isn’t a doubt gold and silver, in addition to platinum and palladium, are in increase cycles at current. So bust will observe. We simply don’t know exactly when.
The Federal Reserve might not be capable of lean as simple on U.S. financial coverage as many doves hope. A stronger U.S. GDP studying on Tuesday and persistently elevated U.S. inflation ranges might hold the Fed’s fingers tied on additional lowering U.S. rates of interest —it doesn’t matter what President Donald Trump might want.
A booming U.S. inventory market. Whereas the key U.S. inventory indexes have turned uneven and sideways not too long ago, they’re nonetheless not that far beneath their current document highs. A bullish U.S. inventory market is bearish for metals, from a competing asset class perspective.