Contreras commerce solves issues however creates new questions for Pink Sox
On Sunday, after two months of prioritizing pitching and being outbid for free-agent sluggers, the Boston Pink Sox landed their first bat of the offseason.
Of their second commerce with the Cardinals within the final month, the Pink Sox swapped right-handed rookie Hunter Dobbins and pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita for veteran catcher-turned-first-baseman Willson Contreras and money concerns.
Contreras might, no less than partially, resolve a number of key Pink Sox issues. His arrival additionally creates new questions for the entrance workplace to reply.
Listed here are a number of the many angles and layers to the most recent Pink Sox transfer:
Price-effective consistency at first base
The Orioles outbid the Pink Sox for Pete Alonso, however Contreras is greater than a mere comfort prize.
In Contreras, the Pink Sox are getting some of the constant hitters of the final half-decade; he’s one in all 15 hitters with an OPS+ of 120 or higher in every of the final 4 seasons. (Rafael Devers, it needs to be famous, can also be on this listing.)
Contreras and Alonso are comparable in a number of offensive metrics. Because the begin of 2023, Contreras has a 127 OPS+, Alonso 130+. They’ve averaged 3.5 and three.7 at-bats per strikeout, respectively.
During the last two seasons, the 2 first basemen had equivalent .354 wOBA (weighted on-base proportion decided by every methodology of reaching base’s distinctive worth because it pertains to run-scoring). Alonso was value 5.6 Wins Above Substitute, Contreras 5.4.
Alonso is youthful and would have introduced extra power-hitting, however Contreras is a extra succesful defender. His plus-6 Outs Above Common this yr tied for fourth amongst certified main league first basemen; Alonso’s minus-9 OAA ranked thirty ninth out of 40.
There’s no comparability to the ‘25 Pink Sox first-base setup: Triston Casas, till his season-ending damage in early Could, then a hodgepodge of Abraham Toro, Romy Gonzalez, and late-season pickup Nathaniel Lowe. They mixed for negative-0.7 WAR; Contreras was value 2.8.
Moreover, subtracting the $8 million in money concerns from the Cardinals, Boston will owe Contreras $28.5 million for the remaining two years of his contract, and both his $20 million membership possibility for ’28 or $7.5 million buyout. Baltimore is on the hook to Alonso for 5 years and $155 million.
Pitching depth is taking successful (actually)
As of seven p.m. ET on Monday, Pink Sox have but to spend a single penny in free company this offseason. Solely the Colorado Rockies can say the identical.
As a substitute they’ve relied on trades to reshape the roster, and given up a major quantity of their newfound pitching depth (although they’ve held on to high lefty prospects, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early). Within the two Cardinals offers alone, the Pink Sox have shipped off 5 pitchers, together with three of their high prospects; Baseball American deliberate to incorporate Clarke, Fajardo and Aita of their upcoming preseason Prime 30 Pink Sox prospect rankings.
It speaks volumes, not solely concerning the pitchers themselves, however the enhancements to Pink Sox pitching improvement within the two years since Craig Breslow succeeded Chaim Bloom as chief baseball officer and commenced overhauling the division.
Bloom, who’s now on the helm in St. Louis, spearheaded the primary few years of the Pink Sox farm system rebuild however had extra success with place gamers; of the 5 pitchers despatched to St. Louis in these trades, Dobbins was the one one from Bloom’s
A balanced Boston lineup
Over the previous couple of seasons, Pink Sox supervisor Alex Cora has spoken usually concerning the membership’s unbalanced, lefty-heavy lineups. Three of their eight batters who performed no less than 90 video games this yr had been lefties, as are Roman Anthony and Devers, who overlapped for a couple of week in mid-June between the previous’s debut and the latter’s commerce. Masataka Yoshida and Marcelo Mayer, two gamers who may issue extra prominently into subsequent yr’s equation, are additionally lefties.
Contreras, a righty, will presumably take the beginning first-base gig from the lefty-hitting Casas.
Casas completed third in AL Rookie of the 12 months voting in ‘23, however missed the majority of the following two seasons with extreme rib and knee accidents. It’s unclear if he might be prepared for Opening Day, after present process surgical procedure to restore a torn patellar tendon in Could. The Pink Sox have voiced help for the homegrown Casas, however in addition they tried to commerce him final winter. They entered this offseason noncommittal and eyeing options.
Expertise and mentorship
Contreras brings 4 years and 30 video games of postseason expertise to a clubhouse stuffed with younger gamers whose whole October resumés are this yr’s three-game loss to the Yankees within the Wild Card collection. As a rookie on the 2016 Chicago Cubs group that ended a 108-year World Sequence drought, he is aware of firsthand what it’s prefer to navigate the best of excessive stakes.
The commerce additionally creates a particular mentorship alternative for Contreras, who labored primarily as a catcher for the primary 9 years of his decade within the majors. He’s one in all fewer than 500 Venezuelan gamers in main league historical past. New teammate Carlos Narváez, a fellow catcher, is one other.
What’s subsequent?
Contreras is a powerful first step in the fitting course, position-player-wise, however the Pink Sox produce other unmet wants.
Since his group’s elimination from the postseason by the hands of the Yankees, Breslow has reiterated the necessity for extra energy within the lineup. Contreras provides a stable quantity – he hit 20 homers and 31 doubles in 135 video games this yr – however until the Pink Sox maintain including, he’ll basically be not more than a substitute for Alex Bregman (28 doubles, 18 residence runs in 114 video games).
Boston’s most up-to-date long-term free agent signing was Masataka Yoshida’s five-year, $90 million deal in the course of the 2022-23 offseason.
By unloading Devers’ contract in June and making reasonably priced trades all through this offseason, the Pink Sox are in a major place to make a dedication.
