Winter Outlook 2025-2026 – Boston Information, Climate, Sports activities
It’s laborious to imagine one other winter season is upon us and with that comes one other try at attempting to determine what Mom Nature has in retailer for us
Should you recall (or don’t) final winter was chilly. Actually, it was our coldest since 2013-2014. And like that earlier winter, the chilly final winter was relentless the place December, January, and February all featured under regular temps, fairly an accomplishment in our warming local weather. However by way of snowfall, final winter as soon as once more completed under regular (regular is 49”) with solely 28”. That makes 8 of the final 10 winters with under regular snowfall. Nevertheless, that 28” was greater than the earlier TWO winters mixed! Though it was our snowiest winter since ’21-22, Boston nonetheless didn’t have a single day the place no less than 6” of snow fell and that could be a streak that continues to develop by the day:
As of November 19th, we’re in fourth place however we’re lower than two weeks away from securing second place on that listing! Does our present streak finish this winter?! In brief, sure and possibly in December. OK so the TL:DR outlook is that this:
ENSO
Like all my different winter outlooks (9 of them), I like to take a look at the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) base state for the upcoming winter. After we have a look at the sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTs), we see a patch of under regular floor water temps alongside (and both aspect) of the equator:
That could be a sign for a La Nina. La Nina is the “sister” to El Nino and each of those ENSO states have an effect on world climate patterns each throughout summer time and winter. Right here is how a La Nina can have an effect on world winter patterns:
Shifting into and all through the winter it seems a weak La Nina is probably going. A few of the seasonal pc fashions recommend even ENSO “impartial” situations
So I believe we will safely say a weak La Nina (and presumably even ENSO “impartial”). Should you recall from final yr’s winter outlook, I talked about how a weak La Nina produces a unique sign for snowfall right here in New England versus a stronger La Nina. Right here is the map displaying a stronger La Nina footprint for snowfall:
And right here is the weak La Nina footprint for snowfall:
Discover the distinction?! That shade of blue signifies above regular snowfall from the higher Midwest proper into and all through inside southern New England. Rejoice snow lovers.
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
Time for some sharing, whereas the aim of those winter outlooks is to ship what I imagine to be the upcoming winter sample, I additionally hope to point out you among the levers, gears and comes that assist to form our climate patterns. Whether or not it’s ENSO, NAO, AO, MJO, or the Polar Vortex (all mentioned in earlier winter outlooks) it has been fascinating to study these myself by the years and share them with you. So, this yr’s gear impact on the ambiance that I’d wish to share with you is the quasi-biennial oscillation or QBO.
OK, so what’s the QBO?!? Primarily, it’s a belt of excessive altitude wind above the equator that flows across the planet. These excessive altitude winds both circulation within the easterly route or westerly route, altering each 26 months or so. This graphic is loaded with nice data relating to the QBO:
The takeaway is that relying on the route (east/west) of the QBO, it will probably have an effect on the polar vortex in addition to the jet stream. This winter the QBO shall be within the easterly (adverse) section and meaning an elevated probability of sudden stratospheric warming occasions, which in flip weaken the polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex means chilly air is extra prone to escape the arctic areas and discover its method into the US. A weaker polar vortex may also suppress the storm monitor throughout the US, usually rising the chances of massive east coast snowstorms (offered ample chilly air is current). Now, an easterly QBO doesn’t all the time produce chilly and snowy winters right here in southern New England nevertheless it the possibility is a bit larger this winter versus final winter once we had a westerly QBO. The opposite factor about easterly QBO winters is that they generally tend to begin quick (IE in December) and this one seems to be no completely different when taking a look at among the December knowledge.
That map reveals the final circulation of the jet stream delivering chilly air into the northern portion of the US through the month of December. That may recommend any storms that head this manner would
So primarily based on a weak La Nina and the easterly QBO I’m leaning towards a winter that includes a truthful quantity of chilly and snow all through the whole season. In fact, our planet is hotter now than 150 years in the past so there’ll completely be heat stretches of climate and rainstorms as an alternative of snowstorms however that’s often the case in most winters (even 150 years in the past). So with all that, right here is my snowfall forecast for the area:
Let’s see how this outlook ages. As all the time, thanks for studying and benefit from the journey by winter!
;o)
~JR
