The State of AI: Is China about to win the race?
But those self same constraints have pushed Chinese language corporations towards a unique playbook: pooling compute, optimizing effectivity, and releasing open-weight fashions. DeepSeek-V3’s coaching run, for instance, used simply 2.6 million GPU-hours—far beneath the size of US counterparts. However Alibaba’s Qwen fashions now rank among the many most downloaded open-weights globally, and corporations like Zhipu and MiniMax are constructing aggressive multimodal and video fashions.
China’s industrial coverage means new fashions can transfer from lab to implementation quick. Native governments and main enterprises are already rolling out reasoning fashions in administration, logistics, and finance.
Training is one other benefit. Main Chinese language universities are implementing AI literacy applications of their curricula, embedding expertise earlier than the labor market calls for them. The Ministry of Training has additionally introduced plans to combine AI coaching for kids of all college ages. I’m unsure the phrase “engineering state” totally captures China’s relationship with new applied sciences, however many years of infrastructure constructing and top-down coordination have made the system unusually efficient at pushing large-scale adoption, usually with far much less social resistance than you’d see elsewhere. The use at scale, naturally, permits for sooner iterative enhancements.
In the meantime, Stanford HAI’s 2025 AI Index discovered Chinese language respondents to be probably the most optimistic on this planet about AI’s future—way more optimistic than populations within the US or the UK. It’s placing, on condition that China’s financial system has slowed because the pandemic for the primary time in over 20 years. Many in authorities and trade now see AI as a much-needed spark. Optimism will be highly effective gas, however whether or not it may possibly persist by slower development continues to be an open query.
Social management stays a part of the image, however a unique type of ambition is taking form. The Chinese language AI founders on this new era are probably the most globally minded I’ve seen, shifting fluidly between Silicon Valley hackathons and pitch conferences in Dubai. Many are fluent in English and within the rhythms of world enterprise capital. Having watched the final era wrestle with the burden of a Chinese language label, they now construct corporations which can be quietly transnational from the beginning.
The US should lead in velocity and experimentation, however China might form how AI turns into a part of day by day life, each at dwelling and overseas. Velocity issues, however velocity isn’t the identical factor as supremacy.
John Thornhill replies:
You’re proper, Caiwei, that velocity just isn’t the identical as supremacy (and “homicide” could also be too sturdy a phrase). And also you’re additionally proper to amplify the purpose about China’s power in open-weight fashions and the US desire for proprietary fashions. This isn’t only a wrestle between two totally different nations’ financial fashions but in addition between two alternative ways of deploying know-how.
